Peter's Points: NBA Best Trades Today (Predictions, Props for Jalen Brunson, Rockets-Nuggets, Evan Mobley)
Peter’s Points: NBA Best Trades Today (Predictions, Props for Jalen Brunson, Rockets-Nuggets, Evan Mobley)
Wednesday, March 11 brings a six-game NBA slate featuring contenders such as the New York Knicks, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Cleveland Cavaliers, and others — with several clubs suiting up for the second night of a back-to-back:
- Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
- Toronto Raptors vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- New York Knicks vs. Utah Jazz
- Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets
- Charlotte Hornets vs. Sacramento Kings
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Houston, Toronto, Charlotte, and Minnesota all had games on Tuesday — but that’s certainly not enough reason to sit out of the NBA best bets action on Wednesday.
Several player props have caught my eye for Wednesday’s slate, chief among them a pick on Jalen Brunson, who draws one of the league’s most porous defenses in the Utah Jazz.
Over the past two days, I’ve gone 7-1 in Peter’s Points — highlighted by a 4-1 run on Tuesday night. The hot streak is rolling, so let’s keep it going.
Here’s a look at four plays to make on March 11.
1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record
- 2025-26 season record: 204-160 (+12.74 units)
- 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
- OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1495-1397-27 (+45.89 units)
You can find Peter Dewey’s full NBA betting record here (futures included) and follow his daily plays on BetStamp.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Evan Mobley 15+ Points (-179)
- Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-142)
- Houston Rockets +6.5 (-115) vs. Denver Nuggets
- Three-Team Moneyline Parlay (+102)
Evan Mobley 15+ Points (-179)
Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley figures to receive an expanded offensive role Wednesday with Jarrett Allen sidelined, and I’m willing to lay the extra juice to back him at 15 or more points against Orlando’s tough defense.
Over 14 games this season without Allen in the lineup, Mobley is averaging 19.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 3.6 assists — reaching the 15-point threshold in 11 of those contests. On the whole, the All-Star forward is putting up 17.7 points per game while shooting 51.8 percent from the field and 31.2 percent from three.
While his three-point shot hasn’t quite evolved to the level Cleveland had hoped, Mobley has still topped 15 points in five consecutive games and logged 13 and 20 points respectively across two previous matchups with Orlando this season.
Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-142)
Jalen Brunson may have shaken off his shooting struggles during the Knicks’ loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday, connecting on 12 of 23 field-goal attempts en route to 28 points.
The star guard now gets a favorable matchup against Utah, a team that sits 29th in the NBA in defensive rating and last in opponent points per game this season.
The Jazz have also been particularly vulnerable from beyond the arc, surrendering a league-high 15.4 made threes per game. Opponents are shooting 37.0 percent from deep against Utah — the second-highest mark in the entire league. That’s a green light for Brunson to get going from distance.
On the season, the former Villanova standout is averaging 2.8 made three-pointers on a career-high 7.4 attempts per game, shooting 37.7 percent from long range. He’s attempted at least seven threes in four of his six outings this month.
With the Knicks in a must-win spot, I’m backing Brunson to deliver.
Houston Rockets +6.5 (-115) vs. Denver Nuggets
Houston ranks as one of the NBA’s best road underdogs this season, sporting a 6-1 against-the-spread record in that role, and the team comes in fresh off a solid victory over Toronto on Tuesday.
The Rockets sit at just 5-5 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back, but I’m comfortable backing them as a sizable underdog against Denver.
The Nuggets remain without Peyton Watson and own a pedestrian four-game cushion above .500 at home, with a shaky 10-12 spread record as home favorites.
Over their last 10 games, Denver ranks 15th in net rating, 13th in offensive rating, and 19th in defensive rating. The team that led the league offensively for most of the season is struggling when it regresses to the middle of the pack on that end.
Houston, on the other hand, ranks sixth leaguewide in defensive rating this season and has held steady over the past 10 games, sitting 11th in net rating at +4.6.
Each of Denver’s two wins over Houston this season came by only three points — one of which required overtime. That history makes the Rockets an appealing play at this number.
Three-Team Moneyline Parlay (+102)
- Charlotte Hornets Moneyline
- New York Knicks Moneyline
- Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline
To close out the night, I’m turning to a three-team parlay that essentially functions as a trade on the Cavaliers — packaged with two other legs to push it into plus-money territory. Here’s the breakdown.
Charlotte Hornets Moneyline
Charlotte earned a two-point road victory over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday, and sweeping the back-to-back feels like an easy call.
The Hornets rank third in the NBA in net rating over their last 15 games (+9.1) and second in offensive rating over that same stretch.
As long as Charlotte’s offense keeps firing, it should have little trouble dispatching the Kings — a team with the worst record in the Western Conference and 29th in league-wide net rating. Sacramento sits in the bottom five in both offensive and defensive rating and has already ruled out veterans Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and De’Aaron Hunter for the remainder of the season.
The Kings have reeled off back-to-back wins, but this looks like a prime sell-high spot — they’re just 14-19 against the spread at home in 2025-26.
Charlotte has also been exceptional on the second night of back-to-backs this season, covering in 11 of 13 such games — the best mark in the NBA.
New York Knicks Moneyline
After dropping back-to-back road games against the Clippers and Lakers in Los Angeles, the Knicks are in a must-win situation Wednesday against Utah.
New York has had a difficult time covering against the spread on the road this season, but winning outright here feels attainable.
The Jazz are in full tank mode, having dropped eight of their last 10 despite an unexpected win over Golden State on Monday — a game in which the Warriors were severely shorthanded and Utah still sat Keyonte George late in an apparent effort to lose.
Without Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz are just 3-20 straight up, putting the Knicks in position to handle business efficiently.
However inconsistent New York’s season has been, the Knicks have been dominant against inferior opponents, going 17-6 straight up against sub-.500 teams. Over their last 15 games, they also rank eighth in net rating and second in defensive rating.
Utah, by contrast, checks in at 18th in net rating, 18th in defensive rating, and 19th in offensive rating over that same window — while owning the 29th-best defensive rating for the full season.
There’s simply no reason to trust the Jazz against quality opposition at this stage, given how clearly they’ve prioritized losing.
Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline
Cleveland enters as a road favorite against an Orlando squad missing both Franz Wagner and Anthony Black. That’s a significant blow for the Magic, who are just 16-22 straight up against teams at or above .500 and only three games over .500 without Wagner this season.
The Cavs carry a worse net rating than Orlando over the last 10 games, but Cleveland posted wins of 14 and 16 points against this same Magic team back in late January. With James Harden now integrated into the roster, Cleveland brings even more offensive firepower — a difficult proposition for a depleted Orlando squad.
The Magic rank 17th in offensive rating and 25th in effective field goal percentage for the season, while the Cavs sit sixth and seventh in those same categories. Orlando is also just 2-3 against the spread as home underdogs and 13-17 against the spread at home overall.
Backing Cleveland to win this game is an easy call — a view the betting market shares, having elevated the Cavs to the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference odds since the trade deadline.
Prices refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Ready to act on these picks? Head to Novig to trade on today’s NBA slate at the best available prices. Novig’s peer-to-peer marketplace means you’re always getting a sharper number — so make your plays count.
