Best NHL Player Prop for May 13: MacKinnon Keeps Charging
Nathan MacKinnon took a puck to the face late in the second period of Game 4, left the ice bleeding, returned for the third, and still scored an empty-netter to seal Colorado’s 5-2 win over Minnesota. That goal extended his scoring streak to five games and pushed the Avalanche to a 3-1 series lead with a closeout chance back in Denver.
That is the cleanest NHL prop setup on the board: star player, injury scare, immediate return, closeout spot, and a market still offering a playable price on his production.
Best Avalanche vs. Wild player prop
Nathan MacKinnon Over 1.5 points (-121)
MacKinnon has scored in five straight games, led the NHL with 53 goals and 127 points during the regular season, and entered Game 4 with six goals and six assists through Colorado’s first eight playoff games. Even after taking a puck to the face, he returned for the third period and scored into an empty net, which says plenty about both his availability and Colorado’s trust in him late.
The prop fits the game state. Colorado leads the series 3-1 and can close Minnesota out at home, which should keep MacKinnon in every high-leverage offensive situation. The Avalanche already showed in Game 4 that they can generate late separation, with Parker Kelly scoring the go-ahead goal, Martin Necas assisting twice, and MacKinnon and Brock Nelson adding empty-netters in the final minute.
The points line is also more usable than the shot line. MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots on goal is logical, but at -176, traders are paying a heavy premium for volume. Over 1.5 points at -121 still requires production, but it captures more paths: even-strength points, power-play involvement, secondary assists, and another empty-net scenario if Colorado protects a late lead.
Minnesota’s problem is that it has to open up. The Wild are facing elimination, and if they chase the game at any point, Colorado’s top line gets transition chances against a stretched structure. That is where MacKinnon’s points prop becomes more attractive than a pure shots prop. He does not need to carry every attempt himself; he just needs Colorado’s offense to keep running through him.
Why not play MacKinnon shots?
MacKinnon’s shots prop makes sense on the surface. He is Colorado’s highest-volume offensive driver, and closeout games usually push stars into heavy minutes.
The issue is price. Over 3.5 SOG at -176 leaves very little margin for a game where Minnesota sells out to block lanes or Colorado gets scoring from depth again. The Avalanche just won Game 4 with goals from Parker Kelly, Nazem Kadri, Ross Colton, MacKinnon, and Nelson, which shows the offense is not restricted to one shooter.
That makes points the cleaner play. MacKinnon can still cash Over 1.5 points without needing four official shots.
Best plus-money alternative
Cutter Gauthier Over 3.5 shots on goal (+136)
Gauthier is the best pure plus-money option on the board. Anaheim tied its series with Vegas 2-2 after a 4-3 Game 4 win, and Gauthier had three assists while the Ducks’ power play finally broke through with two goals. Anaheim also forced 14 Vegas turnovers, which matters for a shot prop because extra possessions turn into extra attempts.
The line is harder than MacKinnon’s because Gauthier needs four shots, but the price is much better at +136. If Anaheim keeps pushing pace and Vegas continues giving the puck away under pressure, Gauthier’s shot volume has a real path.
The drawback is search demand. MacKinnon is the headline player, the bigger name, and the player with the strongest playoff story after Game 4. Gauthier is the value add, not the main article anchor.
Cole Caufield is priced too aggressively
Caufield has a strong case on form. He had a goal and an assist in Montreal’s 6-2 Game 3 win over Buffalo, while Alex Newhook scored twice and the Canadiens took control of the series.
The market already caught it. Caufield Over 0.5 points is -189, and Over 2.5 shots on goal is -149. Both props are playable from a role perspective, but neither is attractive enough to beat MacKinnon’s combination of search value and matchup context.
Trade MacKinnon Props on Novig
MacKinnon is the search play and the strongest headline prop after a five-game goal streak, a Game 4 injury scare, and Colorado’s move to within one win of the Western Conference Final. The shot volume is real, but the points market offers the cleaner price.
On Novig’s commission-free prediction market, those differences show up directly in the number, with no house edge protecting the book. Get your Avalanche vs. Wild player prop positions on Novig before Game 5.
