Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5 Predictions, Picks & Best Trades for Tonight’s NBA Finals

A punishing stretch of foul trouble in the first half severely hampered Karl-Anthony Towns’ effectiveness during Game 4 of the NBA Finals. But with the entire season hanging in the balance tonight, expert projections point toward a focused and disciplined KAT bounce-back performance in Game 5.

Expect the 7-foot center to establish himself in the paint and exceed his current prop totals as he pushes to deliver a championship to New York — a squad that enters tonight as 5.5-point underdogs. Here’s a full breakdown of NBA picks for Saturday, June 13, with tip-off set for 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

For additional coverage on this game, check out the Knicks vs. Spurs props breakdown from Douglas Farmer.

Who Wins Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5?

Pick: Spurs

This series has been far more competitive than the 3-1 scoreline suggests. San Antonio heads home to lick its wounds after another devastating blown lead, but the extra day of rest between games gives the team time to decompress and regroup from that 29-point collapse. Throughout this series — and really throughout the entire postseason — so many small moments have broken in New York’s favor that some form of regression seems inevitable. A potential letdown following a magical night at Madison Square Garden, combined with the travel to Texas, could be the moment reality reasserts itself. Following the oddsmakers here, San Antonio survives Game 5.

Knicks vs. Spurs Best Trade: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 Points (+100)

Towns spent the majority of Game 4’s first half on the bench in foul trouble, but was active and engaged during the second half, logging 18 of a possible 24 minutes.

His offensive production, understandably, was inconsistent — and similar to Game 3, he struggled to find any real rhythm. Head coach Mike Brown’s game plan had been designed to get Towns going early, but those foul issues derailed that strategy immediately.

That said, there’s no reason to fade KAT heading into Game 5. Despite the difficult circumstances, he still managed 13 points Wednesday — not dramatically short of the 17.5-point prop total. Projection models place his expected output as high as 21-plus points, with a personal estimate of 18.7 points — a figure that implies the Over 17.5 should be priced closer to -118. At +100, this trade carries genuine value.

Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5 Same-Game Parlay

San Antonio’s youth has contributed to this 3-1 deficit, but that same inexperience and fearlessness could actually work in the Spurs’ favor right now. This team is young enough to simply shake off Game 4 and move on without overthinking it.

The two-day break between games is particularly helpful for recharging Victor Wembanyama, who appeared fatigued and disengaged during the second half Wednesday night.

The Spurs have had their hands around New York’s throat at multiple points in this series, and their playoff resilience is documented — they’re 7-2 both straight up and against the spread following a loss. Covering a larger spread may be a stretch, but staying alive in Game 5 is well within reach.

Towns was quieted in Game 3 and whistled early in Game 4. Mike Brown’s offensive blueprint still runs through KAT, and we should see that plan executed in Game 5 — assuming the referees don’t become overly whistle-happy. It’s also worth noting Towns was excellent in San Antonio during the first two games of the series, and his scoring prop is offering strong value with projections calling for 21-plus points Saturday.

Similarly, Stephon Castle was hampered by foul trouble in Game 4 and couldn’t find any offensive consistency, connecting on just 2-of-7 field goal attempts. Still, he remained aggressive and made all eight of his free-throw attempts, finishing with 13 points in just 26 minutes — matching his second-lowest playing time of the postseason. With a return to normal floor time in Game 5, models project Castle as high as 19 points.

Knicks vs. Spurs SGP: - Spurs moneyline - Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points - Stephon Castle Over 16.5 points

“From Downtown” SGP: Lucky Number Seven (Footers)

Game 5 could come down to the battle between the two elite big men. Towns was a force on the glass in the second half of Game 4, and Game 5 forecasts project him to reach as many as 21-plus points and 14-plus rebounds.

Wembanyama carries the weight of an entire state’s basketball hopes into Saturday night. The two-day recovery window should benefit “The Alien” significantly, with projections reaching as high as 29 points. He’ll be contesting everything on defense — from three-point attempts to layups at the rim. With his season on the line, anticipate an elite two-way showing from the Spurs’ franchise cornerstone.

Knicks vs. Spurs SGP: - Victor Wembanyama Over 27.5 points - Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 blocks - Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points - Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 rebounds

Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5 Odds

Knicks vs. Spurs Betting Trend to Know

The Under has gone 1-3 so far in the 2026 NBA Finals heading into Game 5, with the total set at 216.5. Despite that record, the Under has historically been the winning side of NBA Finals totals — finals games have gone Under 45 times against 69 Overs since the 2005-06 season, a clip of roughly 60.5%. For additional trends, explore more NBA betting data on Knicks vs. Spurs.

How to Watch Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5

Knicks vs. Spurs Latest Injuries

Check back for the latest injury updates ahead of tip-off.

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