MLB Strikeout Props & Pitcher Best Bets for Today, July 9

Tonight’s slate is loaded with pitchers who have been struggling lately, with Merrill Kelly’s recent rough stretch leading the conversation.

Here’s a look at three of the top MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks from Thursday’s July 9 schedule.

Strikeout Prop: Nathan Eovaldi Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+125)

MacKenzie Gore came through for us last night but couldn’t complete the ladder — and the volume of chances he generated has me feeling good about Nathan Eovaldi taking over that role tonight.

Whether there’s a direct connection is debatable, but the Los Angeles Angels remain one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in all of baseball.

Looking at their last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, six Angels hitters carry a strikeout rate of at least 23.3%, with four of those eclipsing the 33.3% mark.

Eovaldi himself has put up a 29.51% strikeout rate across his five most recent starts. Over his last 90 batters faced, he’s recorded a 33.1% called strikes plus whiffs rate and a 17.2% swinging strike rate.

This sets up as an ideal situation for a high-strikeout pitcher to exceed his prop total against one of the most aggressive-swinging rosters in the league.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: RSN, ABTV

Strikeout Prop: Merrill Kelly Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+132)

Heading into tonight, Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly carries one of the weakest pitcher ratings on Batters-Box, including the lowest matchup strikeout rate on the board. His historical performance in unfavorable matchups also makes this an attractive spot.

Over 17 poorly rated starts, Kelly has finished with fewer than four strikeouts 47% of the time. In six games this year where his matchup strikeout rate was rated poorly, he’s stayed under this total 66.67% of the time.

During his last five outings, Kelly’s strikeout rate has remained under 13%, and when pitching away from home this season, that figure falls even further to just 10.34%.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SDPA, ARID

Earned Runs Prop: Brady Singer Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-153)

After the Cincinnati Reds put up a nearly two-touchdown offensive performance last night, look for the Phillies to come out with a point to prove and deliver a strong answer.

Brady Singer is set to face a fully elite-rated Philadelphia lineup on Batters-Box, one that includes three hitters with elite individual ratings and two more carrying strong marks. Perhaps most notable is that all three of those elite bats carry arsenal coverage of at least 57.6% against Singer’s specific pitch mix.

Beyond the individual matchup numbers, the Philadelphia Phillies have been swinging a hot collective bat recently, posting a 111 wRC+, a .332 wOBA, and a .167 ISO over their last 12 games. With Philadelphia’s top hitters already looking primed for a bounce-back night, this appears to be a strong opportunity to trade against Singer.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CINR, NBCSP

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