Novig Odds: Can LIV Golf Win at 2026's First Major?
LIV Golf has sent champions like Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, Charl Schwartzel, and John Rahm to the First Major every year since its founding, but none of them have won the event as a LIV player. That could change this week, as ten LIV Golf players are in 2026's First Major field, and the Novig prediction market puts their combined implied win probability at roughly 18%. Here is what the odds are saying about each of them.
Novig Player Odds: 2026's First Major
1. Jon Rahm
Best Event Finish: 1st (2023)
Recent Form: 2nd (LIV Golf South Africa), 5th (Aramco LIV Golf Singapore), 1st (HSBC LIV Golf Hong Kong)
Novig Odds: +1120
The market has spoken, and it agrees with anyone who has watched Rahm play this season. At +1120, he is the highest-odds LIV player at the First Major and a legitimate top-five threat in the full field. He broke an 18-month winless drought in Hong Kong and arrives at Augusta, Georgia in arguably the best form he has been in since winning the event in 2023.
The Legion XIII captain ranks 1st on LIV Golf this season in strokes gained on approach and 3rd in strokes gained off the tee. Although his putter has been hot and cold, he has only lost strokes putting at the event once, which is a remarkable record on one of the game’s most demanding putting surfaces.
A win this week would make Rahm just the third Spanish player with multiple event victories, joining Seve Ballesteros and Jose Maria Olazabal. Ballesteros won the event for a second time three years after his first, precisely the feat Rahm is aiming to replicate. The market believes it is possible.
2. Bryson DeChambeau
Best Event Finish: T5 (2025)
Recent Form: 1st (LIV Golf South Africa), 1st (Aramco LIV Golf Singapore), T24 (HSBC LIV Golf Hong Kong)
Novig Odds: +1199
The Novig market prices Rahm and DeChambeau as nearly interchangeable, and that feels right. After struggling at Augusta, Georgia for the first seven years of his professional career, DeChambeau has cracked the code with T6 in 2024 and T5 in 2025. He arrives at the tournament this week with momentum from a two-event winning streak in Singapore and South Africa.
The Crushers GC captain leads the LIV Golf league with 1.01 strokes gained per round off the tee and has been an elite putter this season, making him perfectly suited to the course's firm and fast greens. He has gained strokes on the greens at Augusta, Georgia in each of the past two seasons, which is a key reason his results there have improved so dramatically.
DeChambeau is a legitimate contender to win his third major championship. At +1199, the market is taking him seriously.
3. Tyrrell Hatton
Best Event Finish: T9 (2024)
Recent Form: T38 (LIV Golf South Africa), T10 (Aramco LIV Golf Singapore), T45 (HSBC LIV Golf Hong Kong)
Novig Odds: +5782
The gap from DeChambeau to Hatton tells a story. At +5782, the market is reflecting a player whose season-long form has been inconsistent. The Legion XIII star has lost strokes on the greens in four of his five LIV starts, which is not a profile you want heading into 2026's First Major.
With that said, Hatton cannot be dismissed. He has posted back-to-back top-15 finishes at Augusta, Georgia with T9 in 2025 and T14 in 2025, and has a history of raising his game on the sport’s biggest stages. If the putter catches fire for one week, his tee-to-green numbers are more than good enough to compete. The price reflects real risk, but offers real upside for a player who clearly knows how to play the course.
4. Cameron Smith
Best Event Finish: T2 (2020)
Recent Form: T17 (LIV Golf South Africa), T8 (Aramco LIV Golf Singapore), 48th (HSBC LIV Golf Hong Kong)
Novig Odds: +6567
An argument can be made that the First Major may be the best course fit for Smith’s game in professional golf. The Ripper GC captain’s long-standing driving accuracy issues matter less here than almost anywhere else on tour. Smith thrives on and around greens, which is precisely where the First Major is won.
Five top-10 finishes in nine First Major starts is a remarkable record. The market prices him just above Hatton, which feels appropriate given a 2026 LIV season that has been uneven. Nonetheless, course history is a powerful variable, and Smith’s is one of the best in this group.
5. Sergio Garcia
Best Event Finish: 1st (2017)
Recent Form: T17 (LIV Golf South Africa), T35 (Aramco LIV Golf Singapore), T8 (HSBC LIV Golf Hong Kong)
Novig Odds: +14186
Garcia is one of five current LIV players who has won the event in the past. The 2017 champion joins Rahm, Johnson, Schwartzel, and Watson in that group. Nonetheless, the Novig market prices him as a long shot, and the 2026 numbers support the skepticism. The Fireballs GC captain has lost strokes putting in four of five LIV starts this season, and that is simply not a trait that plays at Augusta, Georgia.
The tee-to-green profile is still respectable, ranking 4th in strokes gained on approach on LIV. A spike week with the flat stick could move him up quickly. It just has not happened yet this season.
6. Carlos Ortiz
Best Event Finish: MC (2021)
Recent Form: 8th (LIV Golf South Africa), T21 (Aramco LIV Golf Singapore), 6th (HSBC LIV Golf Hong Kong)
Novig Odds: +12400
Of all the long shots in this group, Ortiz may be the most interesting name to watch. He ranks 2nd on the LIV Golf season in strokes gained on approach, which is a metric that tends to travel well to Augusta, Georgia. Ortiz has demonstrated legitimate major-level ball-striking at last year’s U.S. Open. The market prices him at +12400, which reflects the limited course experience and a missed cut in his only previous First Majorstart. His ceiling as a top-20 finisher is realistic, but his ceiling as a serious title contender is not there yet.
7. Dustin Johnson
Best Event Finish: 1st (2020)
Recent Form: T31 (LIV Golf South Africa), T10 (Aramco LIV Golf Singapore), T24 (HSBC LIV Golf Hong Kong)
Novig Odds: +12400
Johnson is one of the most decorated First Major players of his generation with four top-10 finishes and one event win in 2020. The Novig market puts him at +12400, which tells you something about where his 2026 form stands. The 4Aces GC captain has been gaining strokes with the putter this season, which is unusual for him, but has lost strokes off the tee and on approach in four of five starts. For a player who has been one of the most reliable ball-strikers of the past two decades, that is a worrying trend heading into a course that demands elite tee-to-green execution. He could spike for a round or two, but a sustained run in his current form would be a surprise.
8. Tom McKibbin
Best Event Finish: Debut
Recent Form: T24 (LIV Golf South Africa), T21 (Aramco LIV Golf Singapore), T24 (HSBC LIV Golf Hong Kong)
Novig Odds: +14186
McKibbin is one of the most exciting young players in the world, but the First Major has a long history of humbling first-timers regardless of talent level. The Northern Irishman has the benefit of Legion XIII teammates Rahm and Hatton to lean on for course knowledge, but nothing replaces a first-hand lap around the course. The market prices him as a long shot, and that is the right call for a debut week. What he learns this year may matter more in 2027.
9. Charl Schwartzel
Best Event Finish: 1st (2011)
Recent Form: T24 (LIV Golf South Africa), T21 (Aramco LIV Golf Singapore), T31 (HSBC LIV Golf Hong Kong)
Novig Odds: +14186
Schwartzel is the longest-tenured LIV Golf First Major champion. His 2011 victory came with a closing four-birdie stretch on the final four holes that remains one of event’s most dramatic finishes. He gutted through painful back spasms at LIV Golf South Africa just weeks ago, relying on the energy of 100,000 home fans to carry him through the week. Those fans will not be in Georgia. The market is right to be cautious, though a healthy Schwartzel with his level of First Major experience can never be entirely ruled out.
10. Bubba Watson
Best Event Finish: 1st (2012, 2014)
Recent Form: T38 (LIV Golf South Africa), T28 (Aramco LIV Golf Singapore), T41 (HSBC LIV Golf Hong Kong)
Novig Odds: +14186
Watson is a two-time champion and the only player in this group to have won the tournament more than once as a professional. He also had a legitimate run at the event in 2025, finishing T14 after leading the field in strokes gained from putting. Nonetheless, his 2026 form has been the weakest of his LIV Golf career with a best finish of T28 across five starts, with three finishes of T38 or worse. The RangeGoats GC captain clearly loves the First Major. Whether he can manufacture the same putting magic that carried him last year, from a standing start in terms of form, is the question the market is answering with +14186.
Make Your Pick Count: The 500,000 Novig Cash Jackpot
No matter which player you are rooting for, having skin in the game across all four days will make for an exciting tournament weekend. Novig is running a 500,000 Novig Cash Jackpot giveaway this week, open to all eligible users. Each day of the tournament, from April 9 through April 12, you opt in through the Novig app, claim a daily token, and apply it to a Yes position on a golfer to win in the outright market. If your golfer wins, you split the 500K Novig Cash prize pool equally with every other trader who put a token on the same player. Back a longshot and win, and the payout per token gets dramatically larger. You can accumulate up to four tokens across the week, and you don’t have to put them all on the same player. The first Day 1 token window opens Wednesday, April 8 at 12 p.m. ET.
The Bottom Line
LIV Golf has never produced a champion at the First Major while a player was actively on its roster. That narrative is on the line this week, and for the first time since the league launched, the Novig market gives it a real shot. Rahm at +1120 and DeChambeau at +1199 are legitimate title contenders. The six players priced at +12400 or longer face harder odds, but this group collectively holds seven event wins among them. All the analysis above tells you who the market trusts, now it’s your turn to open the Novig app, claim your token, and make your call.
