MLB Home Run Props for April 21: Brandon Lowe Headlines Tuesday’s Top Picks

SportsLine analyst Jacob Fetner breaks down his top MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday, April 21

With 15 games on the MLB slate this Tuesday, there’s no shortage of opportunities for home run prop action. Some of the sport’s premier talents will be stepping onto the field, and before placing any MLB bets, it’s worth checking in with SportsLine analyst Jacob Fetner. Coming off a stellar track record — he finished up 50 units on MLB HR picks last season — Fetner has identified three home run props for April 21. Chief among them is Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe, who Fetner likes to knock his eighth homer of the year. Lowe carries a +410 price to go deep and sits at +260 to record two or more hits.

Top Home Run Props for Tuesday, April 21

• Brandon Lowe, Pirates (+410)
• Seiya Suzuki, Cubs (+590)
• Kyle Stowers, Marlins (+490)

Brandon Lowe, Pirates (+410, FanDuel)

Fetner is circling back to Lowe as a bounce-back candidate, noting that the market’s true line should sit closer to +275. “Lowe, a left-handed hitter, enjoys the platoon edge against right-handed starter Kumar Rocker,” Fetner explained. Over the past year, Lowe has posted a .286 batting average and a .915 OPS against right-handed pitching, and 32 of his 38 career home runs have come against righties. Meanwhile, left-handed hitters as a group have batted .304 with a .891 OPS against Rocker going back to last season, connecting for eight home runs across 195 plate appearances — far superior to the .700 OPS that right-handed batters have managed against him.

Seiya Suzuki, Cubs (+590, FanDuel)

Fetner points to a favorable matchup for the Cubs outfielder against a struggling left-handed starter. Over the past year, Suzuki has hit .259 with a .871 OPS and 11 home runs in 203 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, well above his .778 OPS against righties. Opposing starter Jesus Luzardo has been particularly vulnerable to right-handed bats, who have hit .252 with a .695 OPS and 16 home runs in 686 plate appearances against him since last season — compared to just a .549 OPS allowed against lefties. At home, Suzuki has been especially productive, amassing 19 home runs in 364 plate appearances with a .781 OPS dating back to last season. While Suzuki hasn’t historically had great results against Luzardo individually, Fetner believes the pitcher’s recent struggles — a 7.94 ERA across his last four outings — make this an opportune moment to target him.

Kyle Stowers, Marlins (+490, FanDuel)

Fetner also likes Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers in what shapes up as an appealing matchup. Against right-handed pitching over the past year, Stowers has batted .300 with a .972 OPS, and 24 of his 25 home runs have come off righties. Starter Dustin May has been susceptible to left-handed hitters since last season, allowing a .278 average, a .868 OPS, and 17 home runs across 392 plate appearances to lefties — compared to a .704 OPS against right-handed batters. At home, Stowers has slugged 13 home runs in 232 plate appearances with a .879 OPS going back to last season. May’s recent form is also a concern, as he carries a 6.98 ERA over his last four starts and has surrendered 10 home runs over his past eight road appearances. Notably, May’s home run rate on the road (2.14 HR per 9 innings since last season) dwarfs his rate at home (0.90 per 9), and Tuesday’s outing comes away from his home park — the environment where he gives up homers at a significantly higher clip.

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