Best MLB Home Run Props for July 2: Riley & Carpenter
Best MLB Home Run Props for July 2: Riley & Carpenter
Published 2026-07-03
The Thursday, July 2 MLB slate features nine games, with marquee National League matchups including Cardinals vs. Braves and Padres vs. Dodgers. In the American League, the Tampa Bay Rays are chasing an eighth consecutive win and a three-game sweep of the Royals in Kansas City, with first pitch at 7:40 p.m. ET.
Home run props are among the most exciting player markets to track — and Thursday’s card gives sharp traders plenty to work with. SportsLine expert Adam Thompson, an analytics-driven matchup specialist with over 70 units of profit in MLB over the past two seasons, has identified two players he likes to go deep on July 2.
Here’s a full breakdown of Thompson’s best home run prop opportunities for Thursday, framed through a prediction-market lens for traders looking to find real value.
Thursday MLB Home Run Props: July 2 Breakdown
Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
Prop Type: To Hit a Home Run Market Price: +427
Kerry Carpenter presents a compelling value opportunity when you dig into the matchup fundamentals. The Tigers face Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi, who has been cleaner in his last two outings — no home runs allowed in either. However, context matters enormously in prediction market analysis: before that two-game stretch, Eovaldi surrendered at least one home run in five consecutive starts, including two home runs in two of those games. He’s allowed as many as four homers in a single game this season.
The directional data gets even sharper from there. Eovaldi has historically allowed more home runs to left-handed hitters, and nearly all of his long balls surrendered have come from batters hitting in the Nos. 1-4 spots in the order. Carpenter checks both boxes.
Then there’s the production trend. Of Carpenter’s 16 home runs on the season, 15 have come against right-handed pitching — and Eovaldi is a righty. Over the past week specifically, Carpenter has hit three home runs, the most among his Tigers teammates.
At +427, this is a price that reflects a player in solid form facing a pitcher with documented home run vulnerability. For prediction market traders who understand buying into favorable matchup structures, this is exactly the type of spot worth analyzing closely.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Prop Type: To Hit a Home Run Market Price: +571
Austin Riley is the more contrarian of Thursday’s two featured home run trades — and Thompson is explicit about the risk involved. Over his past seven games, Riley is just 2-for-25 (.080) with zero home runs and nine strikeouts. On the season, he’s batting .207, well below his career average of .265, and has managed just eight home runs in 84 games — a significant drop from the 33-plus he hit in each season from 2021 through 2023.
So why is Thompson flagging Riley as a buy-low opportunity rather than fading him entirely?
The matchup. Riley faces Cardinals starter Dustin May, and the historical sample is small but striking: Riley is a lifetime 2-for-5 against May, and both of those hits are home runs. That’s a 100% home run rate on contact in this specific matchup.
Layer in May’s 2026 road splits and the picture sharpens further. Six of the seven home runs May has allowed this season have come on the road — and this start comes in Atlanta, meaning May is pitching away from home. In his last start, also on the road in Kansas City, May gave up two home runs in just two innings of work.
At +571, the price reflects Riley’s slump. But savvy prediction market participants know that prices can disconnect from underlying matchup probability — and this may be one of those cases. The combination of a specific pitcher matchup Riley has historically punished and May’s elevated road home run vulnerability creates a window worth monitoring.
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Whether you see value in Carpenter’s left-handed bat vs. a homer-prone righty or Riley’s under-the-radar matchup history against May, Novig is where you can explore these markets and make your trades at real market prices.
And if your analysis proves correct, winners are always welcome at Novig — no bans, no limits for being profitable.
Final Thoughts: July 2 HR Props Summary
| Player | Team | Opponent SP | Market Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Carpenter | Tigers | Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | +427 |
| Austin Riley | Braves | Dustin May (RHP) | +571 |
Thompson’s selections for Thursday center on matchup exploitation — Eovaldi’s documented vulnerability to left-handed power hitters and May’s pronounced road home run issues. Carpenter is the higher-confidence trade given his recent form, while Riley represents a calculated contrarian position with legitimate matchup backing despite his ongoing slump.
Ready to put your MLB analysis to work? Head to Novig’s prediction market exchange to explore home run props and hundreds of other markets across Thursday’s full MLB slate. Play for free with Novig Coins, or participate in sweepstakes markets for a chance at real prizes — all with zero vig and fair market prices. Novig
