NBA Player Prop Picks & Prices for the Play-In Tournament: Model Targets Paul George Under, April 15

The 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament rolls on Wednesday with two marquee matchups: the Orlando Magic taking on the Philadelphia 76ers at 7:30 p.m. ET, followed by the Golden State Warriors squaring off against the Los Angeles Clippers at 10 p.m. ET. With stars like Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, and Paolo Banchero all in action, there’s no shortage of intriguing player prop opportunities to consider.

The SportsLine Projection Model has identified several standout prop plays for Wednesday — and notably, one of them fades a marquee name on the scoring front. The model is backing George Under 21.5 points as one of its top picks, with George having finished under that scoring total in five consecutive games. Per the latest NBA industry odds, George and the Clippers are installed as 5.5-point home favorites against Golden State.

SportsLine’s team of experts has also zeroed in on additional plays, including analyst Matt Severance backing 76ers center Andre Drummond Over 18.5 points + rebounds + assists, given that Joel Embiid (abdomen) is sidelined. From the Warriors-Clippers game, the model also sees value on Draymond Green Under 5.5 assists.

Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Wednesday, April 15

• Paul George, Clippers — Under 21.5 Points
• Andre Drummond, 76ers — Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
• Draymond Green, Warriors — Under 5.5 Assists

Paul George, Clippers — Under 21.5 Points

George has now gone under the 21.5-point mark in five straight outings, a trend that aligns with his broader statistical decline. He averaged 17.3 points per game across 37 appearances this season and posted just 16.2 ppg last year with Philadelphia — a clear indicator that at 35 years old (soon to be 36), he’s no longer the elite scorer he once was. Against Orlando this season, George managed only 18 points on a bloated 21 shot attempts, shooting a modest 38.1%. The SportsLine model anticipates the Magic defense will once again limit him on Wednesday, projecting George for just 17.2 points.

Andre Drummond, 76ers — Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

With Embiid unavailable, Drummond is poised for a substantial workload. SportsLine expert Matt Severance explained his reasoning:

“No Joel Embiid, because of course not, so Drummond should be looking at 30 minutes or so if not hurt or in foul trouble or in a blowout, and I don’t see a rout anyways. Not completely out of the question he gets close on rebounds alone as Drummond closed the season with three straight games of at least 12 boards and easily topped this number in each.”

With expanded minutes virtually guaranteed and a strong recent track record on the glass, Drummond’s combined points, rebounds, and assists total looks highly achievable.

Draymond Green, Warriors — Under 5.5 Assists

Green averaged just 3.8 assists per game during last year’s postseason, going under the 5.5-assist mark in nine of 12 playoff contests. While he did average 5.5 assists per game during the regular season, the return of Stephen Curry to full health figures to reduce how often the ball runs through Green’s hands as a primary playmaker. The Warriors enter the Play-In Tournament at arguably their healthiest point since Jimmy Butler suffered a torn ACL — a development that projects to lower Green’s usage and creation responsibilities. The model has Green projected for just 4.6 assists on Wednesday.

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Those are some of the SportsLine model’s strongest NBA player prop projections for Wednesday’s Play-In Tournament action. For the full slate of model picks and deeper projections, head to SportsLine.

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