MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Top HR Prop Picks, Parlay & Prices for Sunday, Aug. 23

Forget about Monday morning — there are home run props to cash in on tonight. Below are three standout home run prop picks for today’s MLB slate, headlined by Yordan Alvarez and Shohei Ohtani.

Best MLB Home Run Props Today

Home Run Pick: Yordan Alvarez (+344)

Houston Astros powerhouse Yordan Alvarez has been making loud contact at an alarming rate over his recent games, tallying four batted balls exceeding 100 MPH since August 18. Across his last 10 games, he’s posted a .467 SLG and .200 ISO, paired with a 24% ground-ball rate and an imposing 52% hard-hit rate.

Alvarez enters today’s contest with one of the top matchup ratings on Batters-Box, where his swing covers every pitch in Oakland Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins’ arsenal. Adding to the appeal, the Astros slugger has gone deep in more than 33% of his 24 elite-rated home games this season.

Looking at Perkins’ last 30 plate appearances against left-handed hitters, he carries a sub-8.00 ERA while surrendering 3.18 HR/9, a 57% hard-hit rate, a 19% barrel rate, and a 33% ground-ball rate. Those lefties have combined for a .443 xBA, .855 xSLG, and .402 ISO over that stretch.

Securing Alvarez at close to +350 to go deep today looks like a tremendous value. Consider trading down to +300.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, NBCS-California

Home Run Pick: Shohei Ohtani (+238)

Los Angeles Dodgers sensation Shohei Ohtani gets a favorable draw against Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski, who has been struggling significantly against left-handed batters this season. Over his last 30 such matchups, Mlodzinski has posted a 14.40 ERA, 10.50 xERA, and 5.70 xFIP, while surrendering a 50% hard-hit rate. Left-handed hitters during that window have registered a .475 xBA, .648 xSLG, and .488 xwOBA.

Ohtani has been raking recently, though he hasn’t left the yard since the 18th. In that span, he’s crushed four balls at 104.3 MPH or above. Over his last 10 games, he carries a .667 SLG and .385 ISO, along with a hard-hit rate approaching 60% and an 18.5% barrel rate.

The superstar also enters with an elite Batters-Box rating today, and in 25 elite-rated games this season, he’s gone deep 25% of the time.

The price on Ohtani is rarely going to look like a bargain, but given how poorly Mlodzinski has performed, trading at +238 makes sense. Look to get down to +220 or find a boost if available.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Home Run Pick: Jo Adell (+307)

Jo Adell may not carry an elite Batters-Box profile or even a strong rating in most datasets, but he kept surfacing during the morning research process — and the Cleveland Guardians’ newest slugger, who already went deep yesterday, represents the most compelling home run look of the afternoon.

Adell is the lone bat in Cleveland’s lineup carrying both a hard-hit rate above 60% and a barrel rate above 20% over his last 10 games. He also owns a .400 ISO and a 40% HR/FB rate during that stretch.

The matchup against Colorado Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano — a seasoned sophomore starter — is already noted as a difficult one given the left-handed hitters in the Guardians’ order, but Sugano has also had trouble with right-handed bats this season. Over the last 30 right-handed batters he’s faced, Sugano carries a 6.42 xERA, surrendering a 56.5% hard-hit rate and a 43.5% line-drive rate. Those right-handed hitters have produced a .457 xBA, .703 xSLG, and .402 xwOBA over that span.

With Sugano giving up hard contact at a rate exceeding 43% on the season and Adell producing hard contact at nearly 42% himself, this could be the perfect stage for the big fella to go back-to-back days with a home run. Trade this down to +290 at most, though targeting the number listed above is preferred. Landing +300 on a home run at Coors Field is a significant edge.

• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, CLEG

Colby Marchio’s 2026 Transparency Record

• HR Picks: 108-373, +18.4 units

Today’s HR Combo Parlay

Prices are accurate as of publication and are subject to change.

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