Braves vs. Brewers Prediction, Picks & Prices for Saturday's MLB Game

Atlanta has managed two runs or fewer in four of their last five outings, and their next challenge puts them up against Logan Henderson and the Milwaukee Brewers (-170). Our Braves vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks anticipate that Atlanta’s offensive woes will persist, paving the way for Milwaukee to secure yet another low-scoring win on Saturday, August 22.

Who Wins Braves vs. Brewers Today? Brewers Moneyline (-175)

The Atlanta Braves are struggling badly on offense. They rank 28th in on-base percentage against right-handed pitching in August, and facing Logan Henderson is only going to make things harder.

Henderson has been outstanding this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and 2.90 SIERA while punching out more than 31% of the batters he faces.

Milwaukee is better positioned to produce at the plate. Martin Perez showed signs of regression in his last outing, and his full-season numbers — a 3.15 ERA paired with a 4.64 SIERA — suggest more difficult outings are on the horizon.

The play: Back the in-form offense against the weaker starting pitcher. Trade the Brewers moneyline to -180.

Braves vs. Brewers Over/Under Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)

Six Atlanta hitters post xwOBAs of .300 or lower against Henderson’s pitch mix over the past 30 games.

There are plenty of dead spots in that lineup right now, making it very difficult for the Braves to put up more than a run or two against Henderson.

On the other side, Perez is one of the better home run suppressors in the game, currently on pace to allow fewer than one HR per nine innings for the second straight season.

Even when he isn’t pitching at his peak, his knack for limiting raw power output should help keep the Brewers’ total at a reasonable level.

The play: Trade the Under to -112.

Braves vs. Brewers Home Run Pick: Jackson Chourio (+425)

Jackson Chourio has a strong track record against left-handed pitching, batting .305 with an .891 OPS and solid batted ball metrics to match.

He sits in the 82nd percentile in expected slugging percentage, and ranks in the 88th percentile in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate — meaning he’s consistently squaring up the ball with authority.

His exit velocity and hard-hit rate have both been climbing over his last 25 at-bats, and he has taken Perez deep in one of their eight career matchups.

The play: Trade Chourio to hit a home run to +415.

Braves vs. Brewers Weather

Saturday’s game will be held indoors, so weather will not be a factor.

Braves vs. Brewers Prices

Braves vs. Brewers Trend

Milwaukee has cashed the moneyline in 35 of their last 50 home games, generating +11.55 units at a 14% ROI in that span.

Game Info & How to Watch

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