MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Top HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Prices for Wednesday, Aug. 19

Pete Crow-Armstrong came through again last night, delivering another winning result, and this week is shaping up to be the one where the record flips — hopefully starting today — with a packed all-day MLB player props slate full of dinger opportunities.

The only real concern on tonight’s card is a potential knee issue for Jo Adell, though it didn’t hold him back in yesterday’s action, and the hard-hitting right-hander is in a favorable spot worth backing. Adell joins a slate that already features Griffin Conine squaring off against Aaron Nola, as well as the scorching Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Here are my top MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, Aug. 19.

Best MLB Home Run Props Today

Home Run Pick: Griffin Conine (+388)

This one circles back to another Aaron Nola angle. Nola’s 30 home runs surrendered this season leads the entire league. He’s also coming off a start he had marked as a showcase appearance in the Field of Dreams game, and over his past 12 outings, he’s given up at least one home run in 11 of them. Fading him every fifth day is a strategy that continues to pay off.

Griffin Conine is the right bat to target in this matchup. He’s gone deep five times over his last 16 games and sits atop several Miami Marlins offensive leaderboards this month. His 28% Blast Contact% in August ranks fifth in all of baseball, trailing only Wilyer Abreu, Austin Riley, Randal Grichuk, and Jac Caglianone. Conine also launched one Tuesday — his fifth home run of the month.

Give me almost any hot hitter against the league’s most homer-prone pitcher at +300 or better, and I’ll take it every time.

• Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, NBCSP

Home Run Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+510)

Stay composed — this is the real deal. After roughly two months of elite production, I had assumed the window for trading Pete Crow-Armstrong to go deep at +500 or above had closed for good. My threshold has been +300 or better to pull the trigger on him, so spotting +500 on the board today required a second look.

This game is shaping up similarly to last night’s contest, where PCA faced a lefty opener, which inflated his price because of the left-on-left matchup. But even against a southpaw starter yesterday, the frontrunner in MVP discussions led off the bottom of the first with a home run at +330.

So what exactly is Sean Newcomb doing to push that price nearly 200 points longer? Yes, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley, but not to a degree that comes close to justifying the prices on offer today.

At +330 or better, backing the MVP favorite is the right call in virtually any matchup.

• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Chicago Sports Network

Home Run Pick: Jo Adell (+575)

The San Francisco Giants are turning to a large lefty in Matt Wilkinson, who will be making his MLB debut on Wednesday.

Wilkinson was a 10th-round selection in 2023 who opened this season in rookie ball, but he also surrendered seven home runs across 43 innings at the Triple-A level before earning his promotion. Every single one of those long balls came off right-handed hitters — and Jo Adell is one of just two genuine right-handed bats in the Cleveland Guardians’ lineup.

Adell did leave last night’s game with knee discomfort, but there’s room for optimism regarding his availability. He was removed from the game with Cleveland comfortably ahead 8-1, after going 3-for-4 with a home run and six RBIs. The knee was initially irritated when he fouled a pitch off it in the opening inning.

With any luck, the exit was purely precautionary. Adell is heating up for Cleveland, and at +575, the price is simply too long to pass up. The fair value today sits closer to +475.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports Bay Area, Guardians.TV

Today’s HR Parlay

Prices are accurate as of publication and are subject to change.

Not intended for use in MA.

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