MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for August 18: Marlins Upset Special Headlines Tuesday's Slate

Even in the heart of summer’s slowest stretch, a full Tuesday baseball schedule gives us plenty to work with.

Today’s MLB expert predictions feature three moneyline plays and a totals pick — highlighted by a bold underdog call on the Miami Marlins to knock off Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies.

These selections are part of our complete MLB picks package for Tuesday, August 18.

MLB Expert Picks for Today

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis’s Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline

Price: 45¢ (+122) at Polymarket

After playing 17 consecutive games without a break, the Toronto Blue Jays finally got some rest. During that grueling stretch, they put up the top team ERA in all of baseball and went 11-6 against a demanding schedule.

THE BAT projection has Toronto as a 56-cent favorite, yet the market has them priced at just 45 cents — making this the strongest positive expected value play on today’s board according to that model.

Toronto’s bullpen arrives well-rested, while Tampa Bay may be short-handed. Closer Bryan Baker threw 21 pitches on Monday and has appeared in two of the last three games, raising availability questions. Top left-hander Cam Booser is also unavailable for the Rays.

Even without Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the lineup, the Blue Jays’ pitching staff is capable of carrying them to a win on its own.

On the Tampa side, Nick Martinez is coming off a season-high 101-pitch complete game, which may limit his sharpness today. Jose Soriano, meanwhile, has impressed since being acquired from the Angels.

Dustin Saracini has a complete breakdown in his Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV

Jon Metler’s Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

Price: 33¢ (+203) at Polymarket

Fading Zack Wheeler on the mound is a tough argument to make, but the circumstances of this particular matchup lean in Miami’s favor.

Wheeler is the kind of arm who makes it difficult to put up crooked numbers in one inning, so the Marlins will need to manufacture their offense the hard way — working deep into counts, inflating his pitch count, forcing Philadelphia into the bullpen early, and applying pressure on the bases through contact plays and hit-and-runs.

Fortunately, that style of play fits naturally within Miami’s offensive approach.

The Marlins don’t depend on home runs or big innings to score runs. They’re capable of scratching across runs in multiple ways, which is precisely the offensive profile you want when facing an elite starter like Wheeler.

At 33 cents on Polymarket, I personally price Miami closer to 37 cents — a gap wide enough to justify pulling the trigger on this trade.

Colby Marchio’s full Marlins vs. Phillies predictions offer a deeper look at the matchup.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Marlins.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Dustin Saracini’s Pick: Padres vs. Mets Under 8.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

We’re leaning on a meaningful track record of results here, backing Robbie Ray alongside the recently sharp Zac Thornton.

The Mets’ lineup has accumulated 82 at-bats against Ray and has produced a mere .204 expected batting average while striking out at a 30% clip.

The statistic that truly locked in this play is Mets hitters’ 37% whiff rate against San Diego’s key deadline acquisition — and Ray looks positioned to snap New York’s four-game winning streak in the process.

Thornton has been in excellent form, surrendering only three earned runs over his last 11 innings. Though the Mets’ eighth-ranked prospect pitches to contact, he’s held opposing hitters to a 4.5% hard-contact rate this season — enough to keep San Diego’s offense in check as well.

With both bullpens operating on fresh rest, this game looks primed to stay under the total.

The play is worth taking up to 55 cents on Polymarket.

Shawn Krest dives into the full Padres vs. Mets predictions for more context.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Padres.TV, SNY

Joe Osborne’s Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline

Price: 60¢ (-150) at Polymarket

Milwaukee holds a significant pitching advantage tonight as they return to American Family Field after a seven-game road swing.

Kyle Harrison has been dominant at home for the Brewers, compiling a 1.38 ERA across 10 starts at the park. The bullpen backing him has also been strong, ranking third in ERA over the past two weeks.

On the other side, Bryce Miller has given up nine earned runs in his two August outings and has been a noticeably different pitcher away from Seattle, with a road ERA more than twice his home figure.

The Mariners’ bullpen situation is equally troubling — Seattle’s relief corps has posted an MLB-worst 7.17 ERA over the past two weeks. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has been one of the league’s premier home teams, going 12-4 at American Family Field since the All-Star break.

Quinn Allen’s Mariners vs. Brewers predictions cover the full slate of angles for this game.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Mariners.TV, Brewers.TV

More MLB Picks for Tuesday

Prices are accurate as of publication and are subject to change.

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