Raiders vs Texans Prediction, Picks & Prices for Tonight's NFL Preseason Game

After a head-turning Week 1 showing, Las Vegas Raiders rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza steps into a more demanding situation tonight at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, facing the Houston Texans in a Thursday night preseason contest.

Houston comes in as a 1.5-point home favorite, with the Texans’ coaching staff planning to give their starters a series or two of action. Our Raiders vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks anticipate that DeMeco Ryans’ defense will make for a difficult evening for the No. 1 overall pick on Thursday, Aug. 20.

Raiders vs Texans Prediction

Win probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the top prediction market apps.

Who Wins Raiders vs Texans: Texans -1.5

There is little doubt that Fernando Mendoza demonstrated why he went first overall in his NFL debut — enough so that analysts are already tracking whether his NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year chances are worth attention.

Yet even with several impressive throws in that debut, Mendoza guided just a single scoring drive against the Arizona Cardinals’ second-team defenders. While the extent of the Raiders’ starter usage against Houston remains uncertain, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has confirmed that Mendoza will see meaningful reps.

Houston is expected to deploy its starters for at least one series, and the Texans’ defensive depth makes life difficult for opposing offenses. For a Las Vegas second-string unit stocked with rookies and players on the roster bubble — particularly along the offensive line — finding the end zone figures to be an uphill battle.

Even after C.J. Stroud exits the game, Davis Mills provides Houston with a reliable option at quarterback who should be capable of producing enough offense for the Texans to secure a victory by two or more points in what figures to be a low-scoring affair.

Raiders vs Texans Over/Under Pick: Under 39.5

Kubiak has remained noncommittal about exactly how heavily Las Vegas will lean on its starters against Houston. Meanwhile, the Texans plan to go with their healthy first-teamers, meaning edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter could exploit a Raiders backup offensive line and wreak havoc on Mendoza and the offense.

Even once that formidable starting pair and the rest of Houston’s defensive starters take a seat, the Texans’ depth on that side of the ball remains formidable. Veterans such as Jadeveon Clowney and Logan Hall, alongside rookies Kayden McDonald and Kamari Ramsey, present a genuine challenge for Mendoza and the Las Vegas offense.

Las Vegas managed just 14 total points against Arizona in Week 1. Although Mendoza operated efficiently, his average time to throw was notably high at 3.13 seconds, and his average depth of target was a modest 7.7 yards.

Houston’s offense isn’t expected to light up the scoreboard either. The Texans’ backup unit mustered only seven points against the Los Angeles Chargers in their preseason opener. Adding further support for the Under: the Under went 12-4 in Week 1 of last preseason.

Fernando Mendoza Player Prop: 100+ Passing Yards

Given that Kubiak has indicated Mendoza will receive “significant snaps,” the No. 1 overall pick should be in position to eclipse 100 passing yards in his second preseason outing.

In his debut against Arizona, Mendoza was on the field for 31 snaps, generating 18 dropbacks and 16 pass attempts while finishing with 97 passing yards. With Kirk Cousins set to start for Houston and likely heading to the bench after a drive or two, Mendoza stands to play at minimum two quarters — potentially exceeding his snap total from the week prior.

During his Heisman-winning season at Indiana last year, Mendoza was one of only two college football players nationwide to post an adjusted completion percentage above 78% alongside an average depth of target exceeding 9.5 yards.

That precision and comfort throwing into tight coverage windows were evident in his Week 1 performance and should translate into a 100-plus yard outing against Houston’s defense.

How to Watch Raiders vs Texans

Raiders vs Texans Weather

The Texans play their home games at Reliant Stadium, which features a retractable roof. Weather is not expected to be a factor on Thursday night.

Raiders vs Texans Latest Injuries

Prices are accurate as of the time of publication and are subject to change.

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